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新視野 | 統籌好總供給和總需求的關系

2025-04-29 09:25 來源:中國紀檢監察報

  在(zai)構建新(xin)(xin)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)格局(ju)新(xin)(xin)形勢下,統籌好總(zong)供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)與總(zong)需求(qiu)的(de)(de)辯證關系已成為實現經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)高質量發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)的(de)(de)內在(zai)要求(qiu)。總(zong)供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)是(shi)指(zhi)一(yi)個(ge)(ge)國家(jia)或地區在(zai)一(yi)定(ding)時期內由(you)社會(hui)生產活動實際(ji)提供(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)產品和服務(wu)總(zong)量,而總(zong)需求(qiu)則(ze)是(shi)指(zhi)在(zai)同一(yi)時期內由(you)社會(hui)用于(yu)投資或消費的(de)(de)支(zhi)出所形成的(de)(de)購(gou)買力總(zong)量。如果總(zong)供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)長(chang)期大(da)于(yu)或小于(yu)總(zong)需求(qiu),會(hui)導致(zhi)資源浪費或資源短缺,進(jin)而引發(fa)(fa)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)失(shi)衡甚至劇烈波動。習近平(ping)(ping)總(zong)書(shu)記強調:“供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)和需求(qiu)是(shi)市場經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)內在(zai)關系的(de)(de)兩(liang)個(ge)(ge)基本方面,是(shi)既對立又統一(yi)的(de)(de)辯證關系,二(er)者你(ni)(ni)離不(bu)(bu)開我(wo)、我(wo)離不(bu)(bu)開你(ni)(ni),相互依存、互為條件。”這既是(shi)對馬克思主(zhu)義政治經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)學供(gong)(gong)(gong)需平(ping)(ping)衡理論的(de)(de)繼承發(fa)(fa)展(zhan),也是(shi)應對我(wo)國經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)展(zhan)階段轉換的(de)(de)實踐創新(xin)(xin)。當前,外部環境(jing)變化帶來的(de)(de)不(bu)(bu)利影響(xiang)加深,我(wo)國經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)運行(xing)仍面臨不(bu)(bu)少困(kun)難和挑戰,亟需通(tong)過深化供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)側結(jie)構性改(gai)革與實施擴大(da)內需戰略(lve)的(de)(de)有機協同,破解消費供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)的(de)(de)結(jie)構性矛盾,暢通(tong)國民(min)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)整體循環。

  供給創造需(xu)求與(yu)需(xu)求牽引供給的(de)互動規(gui)律

  馬(ma)克思主義政(zheng)治經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)學(xue)深刻揭示了供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)與需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)內在統(tong)一性。馬(ma)克思指出(chu),“生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)直(zhi)接是消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei),消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)直(zhi)接是生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)”,強調生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)與消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)、供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)與需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)互為(wei)條件、相互轉(zhuan)化的(de)辯證關系。從現代經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)學(xue)視角看,總(zong)供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)與總(zong)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)平衡體現為(wei)“雙向適(shi)配”機制,供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)側全要素(su)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)率提升(sheng)能擴展生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)可能性邊界,而需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側的(de)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)升(sheng)級則(ze)引導供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)結構優化。從再生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)過程看,供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)側的(de)技(ji)術變(bian)革通過“創造性破壞”開(kai)辟(pi)新(xin)(xin)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)空(kong)間,典型案例(li)是智能手機產(chan)(chan)業催生(sheng)出(chu)移動支付、共享(xiang)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)等新(xin)(xin)業態,形成萬億級市場。需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側的(de)消(xiao)(xiao)費(fei)升(sheng)級則(ze)倒逼供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)質量(liang)提升(sheng)。因(yin)此(ci),總(zong)供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)與總(zong)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)關系絕非簡單的(de)數量(liang)均(jun)衡,而是貫穿于社會再生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)全過程、決定(ding)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發展質量(liang)的(de)系統(tong)性工程,必須在理(li)論與實踐結合中把(ba)握其動態平衡規律。

  從辯證(zheng)唯(wei)物主(zhu)(zhu)義視角看,總供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)與總需(xu)求的(de)關系呈現(xian)三(san)大特征。一是(shi)(shi)動(dong)(dong)態(tai)平(ping)衡(heng)性(xing),生產與消費的(de)矛盾運動(dong)(dong)推動(dong)(dong)經濟(ji)發(fa)(fa)展螺旋式上升(sheng)。習近(jin)平(ping)總書記強調的(de)“供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)兩(liang)側協(xie)同(tong)發(fa)(fa)力(li)、動(dong)(dong)態(tai)平(ping)衡(heng)”,正是(shi)(shi)對馬克思主(zhu)(zhu)義矛盾運動(dong)(dong)規(gui)律(lv)的(de)創(chuang)造性(xing)運用。二(er)是(shi)(shi)相互(hu)轉化性(xing),供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)側結(jie)(jie)構(gou)性(xing)改(gai)革實踐印證(zheng)了“供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)創(chuang)造需(xu)求”的(de)規(gui)律(lv)。如(ru)新能源(yuan)汽車產業,通過(guo)技術創(chuang)新培育新的(de)消費增長點。三(san)是(shi)(shi)制度依存性(xing),社會主(zhu)(zhu)義市場經濟(ji)體(ti)制下,既(ji)要(yao)(yao)發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)市場配置資源(yuan)的(de)決定性(xing)作(zuo)用,又(you)要(yao)(yao)更(geng)好(hao)發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)政(zheng)府作(zuo)用,推動(dong)(dong)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)側結(jie)(jie)構(gou)性(xing)改(gai)革向縱深發(fa)(fa)展,供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)體(ti)系從“有沒有”轉向“好(hao)不好(hao)”,從“被動(dong)(dong)適應”轉向“主(zhu)(zhu)動(dong)(dong)引(yin)領”。

  當前國(guo)際經驗(yan)表明,供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)兩(liang)側(ce)(ce)的協同(tong)已(yi)成(cheng)為宏觀經濟治理(li)的核心命(ming)題。供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)側(ce)(ce)結(jie)(jie)構性(xing)改(gai)革(ge)和需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)(ce)管(guan)理(li)是中(zhong)國(guo)經濟動(dong)態平衡的重(zhong)要組成(cheng)部(bu)分,供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)側(ce)(ce)結(jie)(jie)構性(xing)改(gai)革(ge)主要解決結(jie)(jie)構性(xing)問題,強(qiang)調通過(guo)制度創新(xin)提(ti)升供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)質量(liang);而需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)側(ce)(ce)管(guan)理(li)則注重(zhong)通過(guo)收入(ru)分配改(gai)革(ge)激發消費潛(qian)力。這種(zhong)雙向(xiang)調節(jie)機制,既克(ke)服(fu)了(le)片面強(qiang)調減稅和去(qu)監管(guan)的局限(xian),也避(bi)免了(le)過(guo)度依賴需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)刺激的弊(bi)端(duan),形(xing)成(cheng)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)牽(qian)引供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)、供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)創造需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的良性(xing)循環。這些實(shi)踐啟示我(wo)們(men),構建新(xin)發展格局必須打破“供(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)決定論”或(huo)“需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)決定論”的單向(xiang)思維,在供(gong)(gong)(gong)需(xu)(xu)(xu)動(dong)態平衡中(zhong)釋放增長潛(qian)能。

  當前,我(wo)國經濟(ji)(ji)已由(you)高速增(zeng)長(chang)階(jie)段(duan)(duan)轉向高質量(liang)發(fa)(fa)展階(jie)段(duan)(duan),供(gong)需(xu)(xu)結構失衡的(de)矛盾成為制約經濟(ji)(ji)循環暢通的(de)卡點(dian)(dian)堵點(dian)(dian)。習近平(ping)總書記強調:“推(tui)進(jin)供(gong)給側結構性(xing)改(gai)革是(shi)(shi)我(wo)國經濟(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)展進(jin)入新常態(tai)的(de)必(bi)然選擇(ze),是(shi)(shi)經濟(ji)(ji)發(fa)(fa)展新常態(tai)下我(wo)國宏觀經濟(ji)(ji)管理必(bi)須確立的(de)戰略(lve)思路。”立足新發(fa)(fa)展階(jie)段(duan)(duan),需(xu)(xu)要(yao)系統(tong)剖析(xi)供(gong)需(xu)(xu)矛盾的(de)形成機理,以深化(hua)供(gong)給側結構性(xing)改(gai)革為主線,推(tui)動實現更高水平(ping)的(de)動態(tai)平(ping)衡。

  實(shi)踐證明,破解供需(xu)結構失衡矛(mao)盾,必(bi)須堅持(chi)社會主(zhu)義(yi)市(shi)(shi)場經(jing)(jing)濟改革方向,處(chu)理好政府與市(shi)(shi)場的關系。習近(jin)平總書記指出(chu):“充(chong)分發(fa)揮市(shi)(shi)場在資源(yuan)配(pei)(pei)置(zhi)中的決定(ding)性作(zuo)用(yong),更好發(fa)揮政府作(zuo)用(yong)。”通過深化改革破除體制機制障礙,完善供需(xu)適配(pei)(pei)的現代(dai)(dai)化產(chan)業體系,構建現代(dai)(dai)化經(jing)(jing)濟體系,這(zhe)是馬克思(si)主(zhu)義(yi)基本原理與中國具(ju)體實(shi)踐相(xiang)結合(he)的最(zui)新(xin)(xin)成果,也是習近(jin)平新(xin)(xin)時(shi)代(dai)(dai)中國特色社會主(zhu)義(yi)思(si)想在經(jing)(jing)濟建設領域的生動實(shi)踐。

  構建供需動態平衡(heng)的(de)實踐路(lu)徑與制度保(bao)障

  統籌好總(zong)供(gong)(gong)給(gei)與(yu)(yu)總(zong)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)關系(xi)(xi),必須處理(li)好政(zheng)府與(yu)(yu)市場、當前與(yu)(yu)長遠、國內與(yu)(yu)國際等多重關系(xi)(xi),本(ben)質上是生(sheng)產(chan)關系(xi)(xi)適(shi)(shi)應生(sheng)產(chan)力發展的(de)持續調適(shi)(shi)過(guo)(guo)程。習近平總(zong)書(shu)記指出(chu):“我們強調要(yao)(yao)從供(gong)(gong)給(gei)側(ce)、結構性(xing)改(gai)革上想(xiang)辦(ban)法、定(ding)政(zheng)策,通過(guo)(guo)去除(chu)沒有(you)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)無效(xiao)供(gong)(gong)給(gei)、創(chuang)造(zao)適(shi)(shi)應新(xin)(xin)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)的(de)有(you)效(xiao)供(gong)(gong)給(gei),打通供(gong)(gong)求(qiu)(qiu)渠(qu)道,努力實現供(gong)(gong)求(qiu)(qiu)關系(xi)(xi)新(xin)(xin)的(de)動態(tai)均衡。”當前世界百年未(wei)有(you)之(zhi)大變局(ju)加(jia)速演進,我們要(yao)(yao)始終堅(jian)持馬克(ke)思主義(yi)政(zheng)治經濟學的(de)根本(ben)立場,堅(jian)持系(xi)(xi)統觀(guan)念(nian)、守正創(chuang)新(xin)(xin),以供(gong)(gong)給(gei)側(ce)結構性(xing)改(gai)革為(wei)主線(xian),以擴大內需(xu)(xu)為(wei)戰略基(ji)點(dian),在(zai)創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)驅動中培育競爭優勢,在(zai)更高水平上實現供(gong)(gong)給(gei)創(chuang)造(zao)需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)、需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)牽引供(gong)(gong)給(gei)的(de)良性(xing)互動。

  堅持(chi)把(ba)深化(hua)(hua)供(gong)給(gei)(gei)側結構(gou)(gou)性(xing)改革作為推動高(gao)質量發(fa)展(zhan)的(de)主線,著力構(gou)(gou)建“創(chuang)新(xin)引(yin)領、要素(su)(su)協同(tong)、制度完(wan)備(bei)”的(de)高(gao)質量供(gong)給(gei)(gei)體系。深入(ru)實施創(chuang)新(xin)驅(qu)動發(fa)展(zhan)戰略,完(wan)善(shan)“基礎研究—技(ji)(ji)術攻關—成果(guo)產業(ye)化(hua)(hua)”全鏈條創(chuang)新(xin)生態,聚焦新(xin)一代信息技(ji)(ji)術、生物醫(yi)藥等(deng)戰略性(xing)新(xin)興(xing)產業(ye),建立“揭榜掛帥(shuai)”“賽馬制”等(deng)新(xin)型(xing)科(ke)研組織模式,集中(zhong)突(tu)破(po)高(gao)端芯片、工(gong)業(ye)軟件等(deng)核心技(ji)(ji)術。強化(hua)(hua)企業(ye)創(chuang)新(xin)主體地位,實施專精特新(xin)企業(ye)梯(ti)度培育工(gong)程,構(gou)(gou)建“科(ke)技(ji)(ji)型(xing)中(zhong)小企業(ye)—高(gao)新(xin)技(ji)(ji)術企業(ye)—瞪羚(ling)企業(ye)—獨(du)角獸企業(ye)”的(de)雁(yan)陣發(fa)展(zhan)格局。深化(hua)(hua)要素(su)(su)市場(chang)化(hua)(hua)配(pei)(pei)置改革,建設全國統一土地要素(su)(su)交易(yi)平臺(tai),推行數據(ju)要素(su)(su)“產權(quan)界定—流(liu)通交易(yi)—收益分配(pei)(pei)”系統性(xing)改革,完(wan)善(shan)科(ke)技(ji)(ji)成果(guo)作價入(ru)股、知識產權(quan)證券化(hua)(hua)等(deng)激勵機(ji)制,打(da)造規范高(gao)效(xiao)的(de)數據(ju)要素(su)(su)流(liu)通樞紐。建立產能動態調節機(ji)制,對產能利用率低于70%的(de)行業(ye)實施數字化(hua)(hua)綠色化(hua)(hua)改造,推動傳統產業(ye)“老(lao)樹發(fa)新(xin)枝(zhi)”。

  牢牢把握(wo)擴大內(nei)需這個戰略基點,著力(li)構建(jian)“消費牽(qian)引、投資優化、分(fen)配協調”的內(nei)需發展新格局。實(shi)施(shi)(shi)居(ju)民收(shou)入(ru)倍增(zeng)計劃,健全工資合(he)理(li)(li)增(zeng)長(chang)和企業薪酬調查制(zhi)度(du),通過農村“三(san)塊(kuai)地”改革(ge)拓寬財(cai)產性(xing)收(shou)入(ru)渠道,力(li)爭中(zhong)等收(shou)入(ru)群(qun)體突破6億人(ren)。完善第三(san)次(ci)分(fen)配制(zhi)度(du)體系(xi)(xi),創新慈善信托、社會企業等公益(yi)模式,構建(jian)“初次(ci)分(fen)配重效(xiao)率、再分(fen)配強(qiang)公平、三(san)次(ci)分(fen)配顯溫度(du)”的分(fen)配制(zhi)度(du)。開(kai)展消費提質擴容行動(dong)(dong),培育首發經濟(ji)、銀發經濟(ji)、低空經濟(ji)、平臺經濟(ji)等消費集群(qun)。實(shi)施(shi)(shi)“東數西算”國家樞紐工程,系(xi)(xi)統推進5G基站、人(ren)工智能(neng)算力(li)中(zhong)心等新型基礎設施(shi)(shi)建(jian)設,強(qiang)化投資效(xiao)能(neng)管理(li)(li),建(jian)立重大項目全生(sheng)命周期(qi)績效(xiao)評估(gu)機制(zhi),推動(dong)(dong)有(you)效(xiao)投資與消費升級良性(xing)互動(dong)(dong)。

  強(qiang)化(hua)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)技(ji)術賦能,構(gou)建(jian)智(zhi)慧化(hua)供需(xu)適配體系(xi)。加(jia)快(kuai)推進數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)經(jing)濟與實體經(jing)濟深度(du)融合,打造“數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據驅動、智(zhi)能匹配、規則完善”的數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)化(hua)發展(zhan)新范式。建(jian)設(she)國(guo)家統一大(da)市場數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據中樞,歸集13個重點領域全鏈條數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據資源,構(gou)建(jian)實時化(hua)供需(xu)匹配指數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)體系(xi)。杭州“城市大(da)腦”實踐表明,數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據共享可(ke)提升供需(xu)對接效率(lv)37%。培(pei)育工(gong)業互聯網平臺生態,推動個性化(hua)定制(zhi)(zhi)模式占比提升。完善數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)治(zhi)理制(zhi)(zhi)度(du)框架,制(zhi)(zhi)定《數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據要素流(liu)(liu)通管理辦法(fa)》,在特定地(di)區(qu)試點數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據跨境流(liu)(liu)動“白名單”制(zhi)(zhi)度(du),構(gou)建(jian)“數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據主權明確、流(liu)(liu)通規范有序、安全可(ke)管可(ke)控”的治(zhi)理體系(xi)。實施數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)經(jing)濟強(qiang)基工(gong)程(cheng),重點突破智(zhi)能算(suan)法(fa)、量(liang)子(zi)計算(suan)等前(qian)沿技(ji)術,建(jian)設(she)國(guo)家級(ji)大(da)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據安全靶場,筑牢數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)字(zi)經(jing)濟發展(zhan)屏障。

  創新政(zheng)(zheng)策協(xie)(xie)同機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi),構建動態平衡治理體系。完(wan)善“跨(kua)周(zhou)期(qi)調(diao)節(jie)、多維度(du)協(xie)(xie)同、全(quan)鏈(lian)條(tiao)管(guan)控”的(de)宏觀經濟治理框架,用好用足更加積極的(de)財政(zheng)(zheng)政(zheng)(zheng)策和適度(du)寬松的(de)貨幣政(zheng)(zheng)策“雙調(diao)控”體系,設(she)立(li)設(she)備更新改造(zao)專項再貸(dai)款。深(shen)化區域政(zheng)(zheng)策協(xie)(xie)調(diao)機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi),在長(chang)三(san)角等區域試點產業(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)供需平衡指(zhi)數,建立(li)跨(kua)省市(shi)產能(neng)調(diao)配補償(chang)基金(jin),形成“全(quan)國一(yi)盤(pan)棋(qi)”的(de)產業(ye)(ye)協(xie)(xie)同格局(ju)。健全(quan)產業(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)全(quan)鏈(lian)條(tiao)安全(quan)監測體系,動態監測41個(ge)工業(ye)(ye)大類(lei)、207個(ge)工業(ye)(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)類(lei)的(de)產能(neng)利用率(lv),建立(li)戰略性(xing)資源(yuan)“產供儲銷”全(quan)鏈(lian)條(tiao)預(yu)警機(ji)制(zhi)(zhi),強(qiang)化預(yu)期(qi)引導能(neng)力(li)建設(she),完(wan)善政(zheng)(zheng)策解讀制(zhi)(zhi)度(du),增強(qiang)政(zheng)(zheng)策透明(ming)度(du)和可預(yu)期(qi)性(xing)。(徐曉明(ming) 作者系中(zhong)(zhong)共中(zhong)(zhong)央黨校(國家行(xing)政(zheng)(zheng)學院)科研(yan)部中(zhong)(zhong)心(xin)研(yan)究室副主任(ren))

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